Will Trump’s Russia Sanctions Push Oil Prices Over the Edge?

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Published November 3, 2025 6:31 AM PST

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Big Oil CEOs Warn Trump’s Russia Sanctions Could Cripple Global Supply Chains

Energy leaders sound alarm over potential oil shocks and price spikes

As U.S. President Donald Trump moves forward with new sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector, some of the world’s top oil executives are warning that the move could cause significant disruptions to global supply and drive fuel prices sharply higher.

Several industry leaders, including Darren Woods of ExxonMobil, Mike Wirth of Chevron, and Wael Sawan of Shel, have voiced concerns that tightening restrictions on Russian crude exports may destabilize markets already on edge from regional conflicts and sluggish refining capacity.

“Any broad disruption in Russian energy exports will have ripple effects across the global economy,” said Mike Wirth, CEO of Chevron, in a recent statement. “Energy security requires stability, and right now, stability is under threat.”

A Volatile Energy Market Faces New Pressures

Oil prices have been fluctuating in recent weeks, with Brent crude hovering near $89 per barrel. Analysts say the proposed U.S. sanctions aimed at punishing Moscow for continued aggression in Eastern Europe could further squeeze an already tight supply chain.

Energy policy experts have noted that Russian oil still represents nearly 8% of global crude flows. Disrupting that could send gasoline prices in the U.S. and Europe soaring, particularly ahead of the winter season.

According to analysis reviewed by CEO Today, any reduction of over 1 million barrels per day from Russian exports could push Brent crude above $100 again, a scenario last seen during the 2022 energy crisis.

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Darren Woods of ExxonMobil

Industry Pushback Against Washington

The oil industry’s lobbying groups have also raised concerns about the speed and scope of the sanctions. Executives argue that the policy could backfire by empowering other energy superpowers such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, while placing U.S. producers at a competitive disadvantage.

“These sanctions risk undermining the progress U.S. energy companies have made toward self-sufficiency,” said Dan Eberhart, an American oil investor and CEO of Canary LLC. “You can’t regulate your way into energy independence.”

Companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron have ramped up domestic production in Texas and New Mexico, but logistical challenges and refinery bottlenecks could limit how much they can offset any Russian shortfall.

Global Markets Brace for Impact

European markets, already dealing with high energy costs, are bracing for another wave of volatility. The EU continues to import significant quantities of refined products that trace back to Russian oil, despite earlier pledges to phase them out. Analysts warn that further restrictions could send shockwaves through the region’s industrial base.

China and India two of Russia’s largest remaining buyers—are also expected to face tighter scrutiny. U.S. officials have hinted that sanctions could extend to intermediaries helping Russia bypass trade restrictions.

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Mike Wirth of Chevron

What Happens Next

While the White House insists that the sanctions are necessary to maintain geopolitical pressure on Moscow, the oil industry is urging caution. If enacted too quickly, the measures could trigger a supply crunch that reverberates through consumer markets, driving up inflation and transportation costs worldwide.

For now, all eyes remain on Washington’s final decision and how global markets will react. The coming weeks will be pivotal—not just for the energy sector, but for the broader world economy.

 

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Wael Sawan of Shell

 

Big Oil Sanctions and Supply: Key Questions Answered

1. Why are oil CEOs warning about Trump’s new Russia sanctions?
They believe the sanctions could disrupt global oil supplies and drive up energy prices, potentially hurting U.S. consumers and global markets.

2. How might the sanctions affect oil prices and availability?
Reduced Russian exports could tighten supply chains, pushing Brent crude prices closer to or above $100 per barrel and increasing fuel costs worldwide.

3. What could this mean for the U.S. economy and energy policy?
Experts warn higher fuel prices could raise inflation and pressure the government to fast-track renewable energy investments and domestic oil production.

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